Reconciling Computers With The Approaching Millennium |
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Two very distinct issues come to mind as we begin the countdown to the millennium and the year 2000 (technically the millennium begins 2001 but what the heck!) – Where we plan to be on that New Year’s Eve waiting to watch the year turn from 1999 to 2000 and what is going to happen with all the computer systems that run the risk of failing due to faulty software code.
For all the doomsday hysteria published regarding the cataclysmic possibilities of massive disruption and failures there is some comfort in knowing that most of the businesses in this area will not be affected directly. However, indirectly all will be affected by the institutions they do business with, and the clock is running down.
The bottom line is this: The software on many computers employs a two-digit shorthand for the date, so that the year 1982, for example, is written as 82. Unless the date fields are changed to reflect the arrival of the new century, computers will interpret "00" as 1900, with potentially frightening results.
You may want to try a little trick at home and give yourself some comfort. I deliberately reset the clock on my desktop computer to Dec 31st 1999 at 11:59 PM. I waited in hushed silence as the seconds ticked down staring at the monitor akin to a pig staring at a wristwatch, had no idea what to expect nor why I was engaging in this inane waste of time. The time swept through midnight to the year 2000.....and the event was about as intriguing as watching grass grow.
I opened up several programs and created several files to see what if anything would happen.....nothing. At least for users of Windows 95 there is comfort that at most programs will not be bothered by this event. Safe to say that most if not all the financial software packages, tax packages and personal organizers are going to do just fine. Boy am I relieved! Now I can safely plan my New Year’s Eve trip to the International Dateline aboard a cruise ship so that I can experience the millennium twice, comforted by the fact that my financial software is not going to automatically generate rubber checks to all my accounts.
But here is where the situation gets real sticky and can affect many of the businesses. Since small businesses have relationships with larger institutions for financial credit, travel, accommodations, insurance, government accounts, hospital systems, they stand to be affected by their progress, or lack thereof, of getting there older Legacy computer systems evaluated, repaired and tested so that they can continue to function smoothly.
For example, suppose you are fortunate enough to win tickets to the Superbowl in the year 2000 and want to make arrangements for travel and hotel. But the hotel and airline systems are of the old system that doesn’t recognize 00 as 2000 and thinks that you want to time travel to 1900 instead. The system chokes, more reservations come in thus clogging the system further, and finally a painfully arduous manual intervention process has to take over, summarily ticking off every traveler. It comes as no surprise that a major hotel chain and two airlines have already agreed to the services of BDM International to begin a comprehensive overhaul from front to end.
In addition to businesses, the government systems of the cities and county will also need to be evaluated for overhaul. Banks and hospitals certainly must pay heed. The primary culprits are legacy systems written in third-generation languages like COBOL, CICS, RPG, ALC, IMS, Easytrieve, and DB2 (I don’t know all these either but if you recognize one as part of your system or an institution you work with, sit up and pay attention). One of the biggest concerns of data processing managers is that even if one computer system is fixed to accommodate the century change, it can easily be contaminated by noncompliant data imported from other computers.
Interestingly, former COBOL programmers have come out of retirement and are commanding $100,000 - $200,000 salaries to help scrub the millions upon millions of lines of software code and make fixes. Some are bringing in $1200 per day (expected to double in 18 months) in consulting fees for worrisome business owners. Let’s face it, to adjust to the millennium is not a business driven decision, it is survival.
For example, the 750 employee Mason Shoe Company in Wisconsin, is budgeting $500,000 to reprogram their computers, all money straight off the company's bottom line. It's not even as satisfying as fixing a roof. They get absolutely nothing out of it. They get to stay in business, that's all.
BDM International along with 15 other major software companies are presently laying down tracks to build end-to-end solutions. In many cases they are teaming to incorporate "Best of Breed" solutions for the customer base. The estimated bill of up to $600 Billion (that’s right, $600 plus nine more zeros) to convert all the systems is creating a rapidly growing new industry that will have plenty of business to work with. However, for those business that wait to late to establish a relationship with a qualified vendor the consequences will chill the veins of the coolest of CEOs.
As the realization sets in that something needs to be done and money needs to be budgeted, vendor established, etc., the timelines for getting it done grow out past the changeover. With only limited qualified vendors out there, the panic rush that will inevitably ensue, will drive up the cost of conversion and place undue hardship on the businesses that wallowed in denial or waited for the "silver bullet" fix.
It is time to ask the major institutions that affect your business to explain what they are doing to ensure a smooth transition. Company prospectus information and annual reports should help investors make decisions confident on the company’s foresight and prudence.
As for me I will simply be content to enjoy my New Year’s Eve celebration on the west side of International Dateline (assuming of course the cruise lines get there reservations systems upgraded). And for an encore performance troll eastward across the dateline and experience it again while back at home my VCR clock, oblivious to the fanfare, blinks 12:00 to usher in the new millennium.
This article was published in the May 1997 issue of Coastlines, a publication for the Fort Walton Beach (FL) Chamber of Commerce courtesy of the Daily News.